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Kelly Criterion Calculator

Illustration of a growth chart representing optimal Kelly Criterion stake sizing
Calculation Inputs
55%
Recommended Stake

Suggested Percentage

10.0%

Recommended Stake Amount

1,000

⚠️ High Volatility Warning

Full Kelly is mathematically aggressive and can lead to 50%+ swings in your bankroll. Most professionals use 0.25 to 0.5 (Quarter/Half Kelly) to manage risk.

What is the Kelly Criterion?

The Kelly Criterion is a formula used in sports betting to determine the optimal size of a bet. By assessing your edge (your probability vs the bookie's) and your total bankroll, the formula helps you avoid the trap of betting too much on a single event.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why use Half Kelly?

Half Kelly is considered the gold standard for long-term bettors. It provides 50% of the growth rate of Full Kelly but with substantially less volatility, making it easier to survive bad runs.